Thursday, May 1, 2008

Will Brazil Become a Net Exporter?

In Robert Bryce's "Gusher of Lies" (2008) I found the following section on Brazil:

By 2010, the company [Petrobras] will likely be exporting 500,000 barrels of oil per day. and by 2015, the company hopes to double its oil production again, to some 4.5 million barrels per day. These plans gained credence in November 2007 when the company announced that its new offshore Tupi field may hold up to 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Tupi is the second largest oil discovery in the last 20 years.

I found this odd, since the 4.5 mbpd goes well beyond even the most optimistic forecasts I've seen in the last few years.

*N.B. - The following chart is not a forecast, it is an implementation of the scenario described above. It uses numbers that produce 500 kbpd of exports in 2010 and 4.5 mbpd of crude, condensate, NGL, and RPG production (excluding ethanol) in 2015. Ethanol production is included in chart, but kept at its 2007 level of 400 kbpb. Consumption is estimated at growing 2% annually through 2010 and 6% annually through 2015.

From the numbers of the last 5 years we can see that Brazil's production has accelerated to 10-12% annually at times and flattened out twice. Since Early 2006 it has dropped to about 2% annually.

Will Brazil Become a Net Exporter?


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