Friday, May 23, 2008


A reader asked about Murti's oracle status. I give a lot of attention to predictions, mostly negative. But Murti has been correct. His record in the last 3 years is better than that of Pickens. But only if we discount the fact that he was horribly wrong on the low side.

The real Oracle is Simmons. He rarely mentions price. In 2005 he bet Tierney of the New York Times $10,000 that oil would average $200 in 2010.

He has recently said that oil would be $200-$400 (I've also seen it reported as $500) in 6 months to 4 years.