Monday, October 15, 2007

Thursday, October 11, 2007

FSU Exports July (September IEA report)

Former Soviet Union (FSU)

Russia – July actual, August provisional: Russian projections are also held steady, with total oil production in 2007 of 9.92 mb/d and 10.10 mb/d in 2008 representing growth of 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. Growth this year has slowed from 1Q levels near 400 kb/d, although inflated early-2007 growth levels need to be seen in the context of weak 1Q06 production due to weather. That said, August growth stood at a more modest 125 kb/d year-on-year. Recent months have seen production drift lower from Lukoil, Gazpromneft (formerly Sibneft), TNK-BP and Gazprom, partly offset by Rosneft increases.

Yearly growth by Rosneft currently stands close to 600 kb/d, with total production of 2.2 mb/d representing a five-fold increase on 2004 levels. Some commentators have suggested that organic production growth has been sacrificed to a programme of acquisitions that has reportedly pushed Rosneft debt to around $30 billion. This is seen as potentially undermining Rosneft’s ability to finance future development at fields such as Vankor, Sakhalin and Verknechonskoye, which helped underpin MTOMR projections for Russian output reaching 10.6 mb/d by end-decade. A further twist in the tale emerged from press reports in August suggesting that the government is planning to establish a new state producer incorporating the oil assets of Rosneft, Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz. Surgutneftegaz’s inclusion may in part reflect its cash-rich status, which in turn might help alleviate Rosneft debts.

Azerbaijan – July actual: Azeri oil production remains on track for growth of around 200 kb/d both this year and next. Prevailing output of some 950 kb/d could dip to 650 kb/d in September owing to construction work on the Central Azeri platform, part of the 700 kb/d offshore ACG complex. Work should largely be completed by October however, based on higher expected shipments via the Baku- Tbilisi- Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Total Azerbaijan production attains 1.1 mb/d in the second half of 2008, with increased contributions from the Azeri field and from start-up at the deep Guneshli complex. Growth will be dependent however, on maintaining the integrity of the BTC pipeline, after a Kurdish rebel group said BTC would be attacked unless Turkey desists from attacks on Kurdish rebel forces.

According to preliminary data, FSU net oil exports totalled 8.89 mb/d in July, up 70 kb/d from June and 520 kb/d higher than July 2006. A 150 kb/d month-on-month increase in seaborne crude exports, including an extra 90 kb/d leaving Baltic ports, was tempered by another drop in Druzhba transits, this time by 50 kb/d (see Refining section, page 44). There are reports of Lukoil having curbed June-July deliveries to German refineries, in part due to pricing issues. However, latest information suggests reinstatedvolumes for September. Average monthly FSU product exports fell by 20 kb/d in July.

August loading schedules suggest that exports via Transneft may have been 100 kb/d below July volumes, coinciding with an increase in Russian export duties from 1 August. However, higher BTC flows may have restricted any drop in aggregate FSU supplies to around 50 kb/d. Further declines in FSU exports are anticipated later this year. The threat from late-August of a strike by Turkish ship pilots, if realised, may hinder traffic through the Turkish straits which could restrict trade flows from FSU ports in the Black Sea. Maintenance is due to reduce Caspian output by up to 300 kb/d in September, which should overshadow extra Russian barrels exported before the next rise in crude and product export duties, effective 1 October.

FSU Exports July (September IEA report)

Azerbaijan, crude oil, crude oil exports, FSU, Kazakhstan, net oil exports, net petroleum exports, oil, oil exports, Russia

Cantarell (in progress)

Cantarell Monthly Oil Production 2002-2007

Data from Pemex 2007 Statistical Yearbook covering through December 2006, page 18.
Monthly data from 2004-2007 derived from yearly data, monthly Pemex hydrocarbon spreadsheets, and periodic news reports.

[add yearly chart 1 - Cantarell]
[add yearly chart 2 - Mexico and Cantarell]
[add monthly chart with Mexico and Cantarell separated]
[add Pemex monthly with exports]
[add monthly exports vs. Cantarell]

[add table with yearly Cantarell and projected decline losses]

[discuss worst case scenario projections and production vs. reserve estimates]