Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Net Oil Exports - November Update

I have arbitrarily increased Venezuela's domestic consumption for 2007 from about 580,000 bpd to 650,000 bpd based on two articles I read recently.

Oil is now used to create electricity. Some of Venezuela’s electric plants used to burn natural gas, but gas production has dropped, creating shortages that oil is filling. Domestic consumption of oil has reached at least 650,000 barrels a day, according to Venezuelan economists. Venezuela is importing oil products and may soon have to import gasoline. There is also the problem of contraband: subsidized gasoline smuggled out and sold at world-market prices in Colombia and the Caribbean. Between its domestic consumption and its use of oil to make friends overseas, Venezuela gives away or subsidizes a third of its production. Most of the rest is sold in the United States.

The Perils of Petrocracy, NYT Magazine , Nov. 4th, 2007

The numbers for Norway's production for the last three months are a bit sketchy. I'm using the EIA's from their Short Term Energy Outlook(STEO, Nov. 6th) . These differ from the IEA's numbers in their direction and size the last couple of months. Hopefully these will iron themselves out in the next few months with revisions. I am not including NGPL's for Norway and I probably should be. I'll add these next month (about 300 kbpd).

In response to comments about the percentage of total exports that these 16 countries represent: about 90%. The Top 20 would be 93%, Top 24 - 96%. I have plans to add four more countries now that the EIA has begun publishing more up-to-date numbers for the countries in question (Ecuador, Oman, Equatorial Guinea, and Azerbaijan) and Ecuador has rejoined OPEC. Probably the beginning of next year.

Click on following link to download updated Excel spreadsheet(320kb):

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