Friday, June 29, 2007

Former Soviet Union (FSU) Demand and Net Exports

From June 2007 IEA Oil Market Report

FSU apparent demand – defined as domestic crude production minus net exports of crude and oil products – has been marginally revised upwards by 16 kb/d in 1Q07 and downwards by 19 kb/d in 2Q07. Overall, the region’s apparent demand in 2007 is virtually unchanged from last month’s report, and isexpected to average 4.0 mb/d (0.1% lower than in 2006).The region’s net exports are expected to continue to peak at close to 9.0 mb/d during 2Q07. This would be the second quarter in a row of post-Soviet highs. It should also be noted that Russian duties fell from 1 April, further boosting net exports. Duties, however, are poised to increase again on 1 June.

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Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Mr. Five Percent

Under the agreement, the Anglo-Persian Group and Shell each gave up the "beneficiary interest" of 2.5 percent of the total shares to the Armenian. That meant that he could not vote shares, but would enjoy all the financial benefits of such a shareholding. And so Mr. Five Percent was born, and that is how he was known ever after.

Everything seemed settled at last, even the boundary with Turkey, except for one stumbling block -- Calouste Gulbenkian and his 5 percent. Throughout the negotiations, Gulbenkian had remained a strange and solitary figure. He went to great lengths to avoid meetings, but scrutinized every word of memoranda, and replied with a torrent of telegrams. Isolation also marked his personal connections. "Oil friendships are very slippery," he once said.

Monday, June 18, 2007