Saturday, January 19, 2008

World Oil Supply to increase by 20 mbpd in next 9 years

I'll be deleting this blog in the morning and moving to Montana.

CERA(Cambridge Energy Research Associates) published a paper this week showing definitively that oil production capacity will increase by 2 mbpd per year for the next decade. When I started this blog I was under the impression that oil was at or near a peak. I was worried. I thought I might try to partially document the issue. I was wrong. I'm relieved.

CERA has an excellent record forecasting oil production, particularly in the last 3 years. I can't see how demand can possibly catch up to this flood of oil we are about to see. Net Oil Exports are going to shoot through the roof. I called this one wrong.

The blogspot address is there for the first person that requests it. But I'm done.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yeah. Me Too.

Yergin sure put my troubled mind at ease.

Anonymous said...

Is this the same Yergin who for five years running has predicted that oil prices were going to fall?

Anonymous said...

No, it's Yergin 3000, New & Improved!

Anonymous said...

Is it so easy to change your mind, or was it sarcastic?

Anonymous said...

Your joking right?

Yergin has failed for every year in the last 3 years...so you must be joking?

He will fail this year as well.

Anonymous said...

Even if the paper had some creditability, how would this report help the world anyway. Peak oil is going to happen at some point and if it takes longer then there will be even more people on the earth, more hurdles and probably still nothing done.

BV said...

It is a joke. Look for the sentence with CERA's track record...

Anonymous said...

;-) ... you got out by the skin of your teeth ... I like a bigger margin of error than that if possible ... I hope your new neighbours are friendly, I would guess they are there for the same reasons as you ... I would like to know your opinions on IEA/EIA stats if you get time ... looks like PPT at work to me ... good luck. Xeroid (grahamharmeratbtinternetdotcom)

Khebab said...

Re: CERA has an excellent record forecasting oil production

I'm not sure if you are trying to be sarcastic or not! can you provide references to back up that statement. As far as I know, CERA has always shown production capacity numbers way above real production.