Sunday, October 26, 2008

Net Oil Exports - October 2008 Update

Net Oil Exports - October 2008 Update. Top 20 Exporters (93% of total exports).

Click on following link to download updated Excel spreadsheet

Click on following link to download updated Excel spreadsheet(450 kb):
scroll down to bottom of linked page and hit orange button on right and
then hit second prompt if download doesn't start immediately

chart, crude oil, crude oil exports, graph, net oil exports, net petroleum exports, oil exports


Tim said...

As always, appreciate the effort. However, you still have some serious errors in the spreadsheet. You aren't clearly distinguishing between actual consumption and extrapolations. For example, for Libya, you give the following consumption figures:

2004: 255
2005: 266
2006: 279.3
2007: 293.265 (changing to 293 in Aug.)
2008: 307.65

The 2004 and 2005 figures match the EIA figures. The 2006 figure does not match the EIA (EIA=278.75), and is clearly an extrapolation (266*1.05=279.3). The 2007 figure also does not match the EIA (EIA= no figure), and is also an extrapolation (293.265=1.05*279.3). Finally, the 2008 figure is also an extrapolation (307.65=1.05*293).

So you have 3 successive years of extrapolations, but the first two are unshaded in the spreadsheet, incorrectly suggesting that they are data, not extrapolations.

Please fix the spreadsheet. It's extremely irritating to discover that a significant portion of the "data" is actually fabricated.

Anonymous said...

I just saw this comment. I really don't know how to respond.

Yes, you clearly understand how I come up with my numbers.

I have also repeatedly explained to anyone that has asked how I come up with them and show the numbers and the percentages used.

The 5% is clearly labeled for Libya in Column C.

In the course of a year, if the EIA updates its listed "estimate of" consumption by some minor amount like 5,000 bpd, NO, I'm not going to catch it or even bother changing it if I did.

SKIP the decimal points. They are artifacts of imported numbers and how Excel stores data. The numbers that matter are the ones visible on the spreadsheet.

KEEP IN MIND that the EIA and BP data the whole spreadsheet is based on are extrapolations and estimates based on proxies themselves.

I haven't fabricated anything. The suggestion that I have is ridiculous.

If you actually find some mistakes please let me know what they are. I make them occasionally and when people point them out, I promptly change them.

These are not mistakes these are minor differences in the data that are most likely balanced out by similar problems with estimates in the other direction.

You probably could not have picked a worse example than Libya, since the total change over 5 years looks like about 50,000 barrels or as much as Iran cut last month.

Your issue with Libya in 2006 is first based on some change or issue with the data that I am not even going to look into until next month when I redo the consumption figures for the entire year and is more importantly only 550 barrels per day - in all likelyhood verifying the accuracy of my original extrapolation, since the difference is probably a revised EIA figure.

In June 2009, the EIA will publish its official 2007 consumption figures. Until then, all consumption figures for the countries listed with "EIA" in the spreadsheet have extrapolated/estimates for 2007/2008/1H2009.

I have always done this, I have said I do this, I have never said otherwise. I'm sorry if that was clear enough for you.


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