Monday, February 25, 2008

Global All Liquids Production vs. Net Oil Exports

Global All Liquids Production vs. Net Oil Exports (Top 20 Producers)
Monthly Chart 2005 - 2008



These data points are 3-month moving averages. I matched the scale for the two series at 3 mbpd each.

Monthly Chart 2001 - 2008



This a longer-term view with a 10 mbpd scale for both series. Sometime in late 2006/early 2007 it appears something changed.

68 comments:

Anonymous said...

That's better ... as I suspected, ELM in action.

Although all liquids production is flat, net exports are -3% in just two years when we should have expected the IEA predicted ~+3% growth. (The net exporters have still achieved this!)

ie: a >6% shortfall for importing nations since most of them have now peaked and require growth in their consumption of the net exports just to keep their economic growth level - but it's not available so the price rockets, destroying demand/economic growth somewhere!

Xeroid.

Anonymous said...

Yes, but who is getting it in the shorts, so to speak?

Anonymous said...

this tells the story...anyway you can show this relationship over a longer time period?

Anonymous said...

I added that. I've only got good data going back to 2001, but that should suffice.

MFP

Anonymous said...

great longer term view...any way you could add the line showing "Top 20 oil all liquids production" ie;NOP ?...then we may see the full picture..great work

Anonymous said...

It looks strange to see production running less than net exports. Why? Apples and Oranges? It would look better if they were the same basis.

Anonymous said...

I'm trying to compare the movement in the two data series. They are each set to their own scale. The NOE scale is on the right.

Anonymous said...

A variant of your NOE chart that might be of interest would be one showing NOE as a percent of production vs time.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I will include a version with exports as a percentage the next time I update my spreadsheet, which will be very soon.

MFP

Anonymous said...

Another variant you might want to consider is the difference between production and NOE. I did this and posted it to the OilDrum in the recent Stuart Saniford thread.

Anonymous said...

"Another variant you might want to consider is the difference between production and NOE. I did this and posted it to the OilDrum in the recent Stuart Saniford thread."

I didn't see that. Which post was it?

MFP

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