Saturday, August 11, 2007

Method - Draft

What I term Net Exports is as follows. Production minus domestic consumption. So I will tackle each in turn after a brief summary of both together. I’m using somewhat of a hybrid of what is considered “all liquids.”

I use “all liquids” because it is what I consider the better “consumption” data-set, which is BP’s. So to keep things as uniform as possible, I need an all-liquids production data-set. Unfortunately one does not exist that provides monthly numbers for the relevant countries. The IEA would be my choice, except that they break out straight crude for the OPEC countries and only provide a “total” other-liquids figure for each month. I decided to use the EIA’s monthly numbers for production and to construct my own all-liquids hybrid from the available data.

This is a monthly “attempt” – so I have to make do with the fact that all consumption numbers are yearly. I will describe that process specifically when I start to talk about how I got my monthly consumption numbers.

Let’s start with production. The EIA publishes its numbers usually in the first week of every month. They cover everything up to and including the month three months previous. This first attempt at a timely report uses the EIA’s t11 series Crude+Condensate numbers as well as the EIA’s STEO(Short Term Energy Outlook). Both were released on August 10th. The t11 series covers through May. The STEO covers June and July, but only for OPEC and only for OPEC straight crude(excluding lease condensate).

The categories. Total oil supply and hence what is consumed (implied demand or “product supplied”) is wrapped into the category “all-liquids.”

All-liquids consists of four categories, one of which is divided into two sub-categories. First, there are C+C(Crude and Condensate), NGLs (or NGPLs), “Other Liquids,” and Refinery Processing Gains(RPG).

“Other liquids” include mainly ethanol. RPG typically occurs in highly technology advanced countries, where the refineries are actually able to generate carbon-based liquids is such large volume from the process of refining that they can be fed back into the system as if they were fresh barrels of something or other. See book: “Oil on the Brain.”

The main category is of course what is considered straight crude oil. This is C+C(crude plus condensate). domestic consumption is measured in all-liquids, however.

There is another issue. Condensate while tracked together with crude for the EIA does not count for OPEC quotas. Both the EIA and IEA break it apart from the OPEC crude numbers. The best way to look at this specifically is in the case of Algeria. Outside of OPEC the reporting agencies don’t split condensate from crude.

Production – The Sixteen Countries

On the production side, the OPEC countries are by far the easiest to deal with. Of the twelve countries, all except Indonesia are represented here. Indonesia is not a net exporter, and is in decline. Whether this is geologic or due to above-ground “investment” factors is a subject for another day.

The individual production of the OPEC countries is given in the EIA STEO for June and July. Using previous months’ data from the t11 series and table12(excluding condensate) we can figure what is probable for the monthly condensate production(I calculate this separately from my spreadsheet). Adding this to the STEO figures I get C+C production for these 11 OPEC countries through July. These figures will of course be revised next month when revisions are made to the underlying data.

Next, I add NGL figures for certain countries. Of the 16 countries, NGL is tracked monthly for Saudi, Algeria, Mexico. Russia, Canada, and I think one other. For the others, it is too small to be relevant, with one exception. For Norway, I discovered this time around that they have about 270kbpd of NGL production each month and I will account for this next time.

I do not include RPG or “other liquids.” For the countries involved the volumes are too small to be significant and add too much complexity. This is one reason I call this an all-liquids hybrid.

Now for an explanation of the other 5, Non-OPEC countries.


Consumption – The Sixteen Countries

Saudi Arabia
Nigeria (EIA)
Libya (EIA)
Iraq (EIA)
Angola (EIA)

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