Net Oil Exports - September 2008 Update

Net Oil Exports - September 2008 Update. Top 20 Exporters (93% of total exports).





chart, crude oil, crude oil exports, graph, net oil exports, net petroleum exports, oil exports

Saudi Arabian Oil Production

Saudi Arabian Oil Production
Crude and Condensate only

sources:

1) Platts - usually published around the 25th of the month for previous month - unrevised (August 2007 to Sept 2008)
2) EIA - through June
3) IEA original -published around 25th of the month for previous month
4) IEA revised - final monthly revision published 2 months after original

Whoops!

Boone Pickens Loses Big On Oil, Natural Gas Bets: Wind-Farm Ads Worked Too Well
Corey Lorinsky
Aug 13, 2008
Clusterstock.com

Boone Pickens has been a very busy man lately, lecturing Congress about his wind and natural gas-focused energy policy, assembling a "green" army, and starring in his own commercials. Maybe he's been too busy.

The New York Post says the billionaire octogenerian's $300 oil predictions couldn't help him last month. The commodity half of Pickens' BP Capital hedge fund (which has $7 billion in total assets under management) sank about 35% in July. He can add those losses to the boot-licking he just took in Yahoo (YHOO).

"We notified our commodity-fund investors last week that the steep decline in natural gas and oil prices has had an adverse impact on our performance...We continue to analyze the market and adjust accordingly," a Pickens spokeswoman said.

For those who haven't seen his ubiquitous commercials, Pickens master energy plan is to build massive wind farms in Middle America to replace natural gas a source of electricity. Then, natural gas will be available to use as a fuel for automobiles. Where does the Middle East fit into this plan? Nowhere. Pickens has sunk multiple billions into his own wind farm already and is positioning himself as the "energy guru" for the next Presidential administration.

Needless to say, these losses are embarrasing to Pickens on many levels.

Pickens says oil won't go below $100
August 14th, 2008
Reuters

T. Boone Pickens said on Thursday crude prices may soon fall as low as $110 a barrel amid falling gasoline demand, but should not sink below $100 because the United States depends heavily on oil imports.

"I don't think it'll drop below $100," Pickens told Reuters in a telephone interview. "I would say $110 is where it might go, something like that."

Pickens' hedge fund BP Capital, which manages about $7 billion in assets, sank about 35 percent in July, according to a report this week in the New York Post.

Pickens declined to comment in the interview about the performance of his fund.

The U.S. Department of Transportation reported this week that vehicle travel declined for the eighth month in a row.

Pickens’ Loses $1 Billion on Energy Bets
September 24, 2008
NYT

T. Boone Pickens, it seems, has taken a bath on his energy investments.

According to The Wall Street Journal, funds run by the 80-year-old oil magnate have lost around $1 billion this year, a figure that includes $270 million of personal losses.

Apparently blindsided by the downturn in energy prices, one of the investor’s energy-focused hedge funds is down own almost 30 percent through August, while a smaller commodity-focused fund is down 84 percent, The Journal said.

“It’s my toughest run in 10 years,” Mr. Pickens told The Journal. “We missed the turn in the market, there’s nothing fun about it.”

Before the most recent tough spell, the investor’s energy-stock fund, which started the year at $2 billion, has returned a compounded annual return of 37 percent over seven years, The Journal reported, citing an investor. The commodity fund, which started the year at about $600 million, has had similar strong performance, according to the newspaper.

----

according to another source he said:

“Oil likely will finish the year around $120 or $125 a barrel.”

So how bad has it been for BP? Pickens says “It’s like mashing all your fingers in the door… This has been a pretty bad period for us,” he says.

Net Oil Exports - August 2008 Update

Net Oil Exports - August 2008 Update. Top 20 Exporters (93% of total exports).

NBC, Pickens Spar Over Foreign Oil Ad

NBC, Pickens Spar Over Foreign Oil Ad
By Steve McClellan
Aug 28
Adweek

Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens doesn't take no for an answer. At least he didn't when NBC -- and sibling cable networks CNBC and MSNBC -- apparently rejected his latest ad stating the case for the U.S. to decrease its dependence on foreign oil.

In the war of words that ensued, Pickens won his fight to get the spot on all three nets.

The ad was rejected Tuesday, according to sources in the Pickens camp, for making unsubstantiated claims and for being "controversial." NBC issued a statement late Wednesday declaring that it never made a final decision on whether to broadcast the commercial.

Clearly, Pickens believed the ad had been barred. On Wednesday, his lawyers sent a letter to NBC and he appeared on Fox News' Neil Cavuto program to express his dismay. A copy of the "lawyer letter" was made public by Pickens at 4 p.m. Wednesday. Two hours later, a source close to Pickens said NBC accepted the ad for all three networks.

The latest ad is a 15-second spot that says Iran is re-engineering domestic cars to run on natural gas so it can sell more oil abroad at hefty rates, while "we're not doing a thing" in the U.S. to cut consumption.

A source said NBC initially rejected the ad on two grounds: controversial subject matter and failure to support the statement that nothing is being done to cut domestic consumption. "The ad is not acceptable for air on the NBC network because the spots address controversial issues and it is our policy not to air ads addressing such issues on our network," NBC wrote in rejecting the ad, said a source who read the letter to Adweek.

In addition, the network said the ad was not acceptable for air on the networks "because you have not established to our satisfaction that there is a reasonable basis for the claim that 'we are not doing a thing here."'

Pickens and his team were puzzled because all the previous ads they placed, including 60-second spots that the networks did air, were at least equally controversial. For example, in one previous spot, Pickens says when it comes to domestic oil reserves, America should "drill, drill, drill."

The letter sent to NBC on Pickens' behalf by the Washington law firm Patton Boggs and dated August 27 charged the network with "selectively applying the First Amendment and denying your viewers access to information that is important to their education and understanding of the issue of energy independence."

In a statement issued Wednesday evening after approving the ad, NBC said: "We have been airing seven of the eight advertisements that were submitted for broadcast by T. Boone Pickens. As we were in the process of clearing the eighth, Mr. Pickens released his statement prematurely."

The statement did not address why the network sent Pickens a notice on Tuesday that appeared to reject the ad.

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter

Crude Oil Production - August Update

Crude Oil Production - August Update

rnk	Country	bl	---	---	---	bl	Δ	Δ	Δ
---	---	x	---	---	---	---	prev	high	low
---	---	x	Mar	Apr	May	---	Apr	May	Aug
---	Country---	x	2008	2008	2008	x	2008	2005	2007
---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
1	Saudi Arabia	x	9200	9100	9400	x	300	-200	800
2	Russia	x	9334	9296	9315	x	19	415	-75
3	US	x	5139	5162	5166	x	4	-414	253
4	Iran	x	4000	4000	4004	x	4	-96	104
5	China	x	3769	3751	3811	x	60	200	65
6	Mexico	x	2847	2767	2798	x	31	-643	-45
7	UAE	x	2710	2710	2710	x	0	308	51
8	Kuwait	x	2600	2600	2609	x	9	109	109
9	Canada	x	2595	2546	2590	x	44	230	-208
10	Iraq	x	2303	2303	2453	x	150	550	550
11	Venezuela	x	2440	2440	2440	x	0	-100	-4
12	Norway	x	2209	2111	2247	x	136	-548	112
13	Nigeria	x	2330	2130	2060	x	-70	-630	-320
14	Angola	x	2003	2009	2015	x	6	845	285
15	Algeria	x	1865	1895	1895	x	0	120	71
16	Brazil	x	1750	1797	1815	x	18	126	57
17	Libya	x	1740	1718	1700	x	-18	70	0
18	UK	x	1453	1499	1486	x	-13	-257	258
19	Kazakhstan	x	1398	1368	1357	x	-11	-17	30
20	Azerbaijan	x	913	939	976	x	37	576	94
21	Indonesia	x	975	964	965	x	1	-107	13
22	Qatar	x	920	934	938	x	4	103	73
23	Oman	x	755	748	721	x	-27	-46	19
24	India	x	705	702	701	x	-1	19	8
25	Egypt	x	609	609	609	x	0	-47	-70
26	Malaysia	x	623	607	597	x	-10	43	10
27	Columbia	x	562	567	579	x	12	48	51
28	Argentina	x	675	672	548	x	-125	-174	-133
29	Sudan	x	520	520	520	x	0	170	34
30	Australia	x	436	476	501	x	25	1	22
31	Ecuador	x	508	510	499	x	-11	-27	-9
32	Syria	x	390	389	388	x	-1	-48	8
33	Eq. Guinea	x	385	386	388	x	2	-2	0
34	Yemen	x	313	297	306	x	9	-99	-11
35	Denmark	x	285	290	291	x	0	-94	-32
36	Vietnam	x	274	288	260	x	-28	-133	-44
37	Gabon	x	228	250	250	x	0	-21	5
x	other	x	2525	2549	2574	x	25	-15	89
x	blank	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
x	world	x	74286	73901	74481	x	580	215	2220
x	barrels	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
x	percentage	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x

May 2008 is current the record for Crude and Condensate production.
May 2005 is the previous high.
August 2007 is the month with the lowest production in the interim.
The final three columns show the changes in production between the previous month(April), those two months, and the most recent month (May).

Tupi Update

Petrobras to Start Oil Output at Tupi Field in 2009
By Anthony DiPaola and Juan Pablo Spinetto
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, plans to start crude production at the offshore Tupi field in the first quarter of next year.

The initial output will be between 20,000 and 30,000 barrels a day, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said today in London. The company and partners will ramp up production at the pilot project to 100,000 barrels a day in 2010.

Rio de Janeiro-based Petrobras will boost investment in projects from its previous plan to spend $112 billion by 2012, Gabrielli said. It will order 28 new drilling rigs between 2013 and 2017.

``For sure the new plan has to be bigger than that,'' Gabrielli said in a television interview. ``We have to increase our debt, because the amount of money we need for capital expenditure will be very big.''

Petrobras plans to start crude extraction from an offshore field in the so-called pre-salt Campos Basin in September, Gabrielli said. At first 10,000 barrels a day will be pumped from the Jubarte field.

He said the company may be able to give oil and gas reserves estimates for the Campos Basin at the end of 2009. The producer will announce investment and borrowing plans in September or October. Brazil's National Petroleum Agency said on its Web site today Petrobras and Royal Dutch Shell Plc found traces of oil in an offshore well in Campos Basin.

Petrobras owns 65 percent of Tupi and operates the concession. Reading, U.K.-based BG Group Plc owns 25 percent and Lisbon-based Galp Energia SGPS SA owns 10 percent.

This press release says the exact same thing as the one they put out three months ago. So I guess they are on track.

Link to more information on Brazil's future prospects

Net Oil Exports - July 2008 Update

Net Oil Exports - July 2008 Update. Top 20 Exporters (93% of total exports).

Oil Dollars

This was made by simply multiplying the average monthly price of WTI by the barrels per day of Crude and Condensate produced in that month.

Oil Consumption Changes 2005 - 2007

The BP 2008 Annual Statistical Review has been released. These are the consumption numbers. I used the difference over the past two year, rather than one year. I'll comment some more on the numbers soon building up to an export update around the 30th.

These are the Top Ten Gainers and Top Ten Losers by Barrels per Day. Besides China and Saudi, which are obvious points of interest, Germany and Singapore must be looked at.